Details of the European Union's €497 million fine (around $610 million USD) against Microsoft Corp. for continual anti-competitive practices, some of which had been leaked earlier this week, were made official on Wednesday. I consider the ruling a non-event in practice against Microsoft, the company, and a low-odds negative -- but maybe a negative for MSFT the stock -- over the long term. Since Wednesday, the stock has enjoyed a short-term relief rally following the official announcement from the EU that concluded the uncertainty. Longer-term, however, I believe MSFT will be trading lower in 12 months' time, even if the market is a bit higher.
Earlier this month and last October I outlined the main elements I expect will drive MSFT over the next year or two. These include the facts that:
* Microsoft's monopoly products have gone ex-growth for a year or more
* The company is seeing slowing operating cash flow growth
* There's a growing threat of competitors
* Substitute technologies -- specifically Linux -- are gaining visibility
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